Bird Flu - a Pandemic of Fear

"If it bleeds - it leads" has long been the driving force behind the media. Fear of what might happen, information, stories, and pictures contrived to make you more afraid then you need to be.

Government, companies, and people, are easily led to jump to knee jerk reactions to "percieved" problems and threats. What is needed though is a rational system for evaluating your threats, first the likely hood of it happening, second the amount of damage potentially to be caused, then third, the minimal precautions you should take weighed against "other" threats and the likely possibility of them happening.

Read and listen to the media reports and look at how often the word fear is used, the old line of fear being false evidence that appears real has never been truer. Look how many times the word "fact" is used as they describe the risk.

HERE ARE SOME FACTS REGARDING THE BIRD FLU PANDEMIC

Fact - there has been no "human to human" transfer of the virus - ever. This is a pre-requiste for a pandemic to break out anywhere among humans. The only people who have gotten sick and died from the disease, have been older and they work with birds and their excrement. So unless you do this, the risk is not great.

Fact - it could be a factor in your business if you provide products or services to companies that make their money from birds. If they get struck and lose their flock, they may not need your products or services, or they may not be able to pay you.

Fact - you should have a plan if your income depends on them. 33% of Tyson Foods revenues come from poultry, they have already seen some activity by the market on bets protecting investors from losses, possibly due to the flu. Their earnings call is coming up on Nov. 14th, will they share the risk with their shareholders?

Every company should develop at least a loose plan on how to deal with biological outbreaks now, so that the leaders in the company who make policy will have some idea of how to proceed.

Governments need to develop a realistic framework to deal with a generic biological outbreak, once a framework is in place (tested and working), you can tailor the response.

As Joe Friday used to say on Dragnet, " just the facts please."