THE OIL BUBBLE - THE RISK ASSESSMENT

We are seeing dramatic changes in the economy as a result of skyrocketing oil prices.

Airlines are grounding planes and laying off workers. GM is closing truck plants and laying off thousands of workers.

Car manufacturers are setting up alliances to spend huge amounts of capital to build battery plants.

Companies who use a lot of fuel are having their budgets ripped from projections they have made.

How is your company managing the risk to your business from the oil bubble? (more on the bubble later)

Are you asking the right questions of all your department heads?

1) How does this affect us?
2) How does this affect our customers?
3) What are our plans to mitigate this risk?

For Commercial Building owners and managers, where is our property located, how far do people have to commute to get to our building? If the price of oil stays high does our building become more unattractive as a place to lease? How vulnerable are our tenants (especially anchor tenants ) to the price of oil, how does or could this affect our financing, our property value, our unit holders?

Should you renew key tenants quickly? Talk to local transit about getting a better connection to your building?

This is an example of some of the questions for one industry.

But, back to the bubble. According to George Soros, a man who has made over a billion dollars in one day by betting on bubbles, he predicts that oil is in a bubble, it could and likely will cause a recession in both North America and the United Kingdom, this will cause oil prices to plummet as demand and the ability to pay will no longer be there.

(click on the title to this entry to see the article on Soro's predictions)

So what happens to the auto industry now if all of a sudden it is cheap to run a big truck on gas, and suddenly the pricey little hybrid is no longer economical? You have closed your truck plants and sank millions into little cars! You have to be careful when assessing risk, you could be setting yourself up for bigger problems if you guess wrong, or take a knee-jerk reaction to a threat.

You need to look at both possibilities for your business.

Business Continuity in Multi-tenanted Buildings

If you own, manage or are a tenant in a commercial building

PAY ATTENTION!

No where is there more dramatic opportunity for loss of revenues then in a commercial office building that has not prepared for business interruption.

Each situation is unique in its risks for the owner, and the tenant, each property its own profile, the answer lies in evaluating by the right questions and planning for the right contingencies, either through mitigating the risk, or outsourcing it to a 3rd party through proper insurance coverage.

For the Owner/Manger

• insurance risk, tenants may not disclose or have sufficient insurance for repairs to tenants on the adjoining floors or units, you will be named
• asset preservation - from the loss of the structure, to interruption from major transportation routes, insufficient insurance
• leasing - new tenants especially U.S. based companies require the base building to have a business continuity and disaster recovery plan
• tenant retention, in a tight market it is a value added service to tenants that you need to provide for yourself and the tenants, but by insuring they have a plan, you reduce your risks as well
• maximizing revenue - if a building or a major tenant is out of commission long enough the tenant will miss rent, or go bankrupt. Studies have shown many businesses that have to close for 3 weeks, never recover. Their customers go to number 2, or insurance or the banks will not provide the funds to recover.

For the Tenant or Prospective Tenant

• you rely on the base building for the necessities, from communications (how many trunk lines into your building, what if one is cut by a back hoe, or as I.T. professionals call them cable seeking devices), water, hydro, elevators, parking
• your insurance coverage must protect you from other tenants actions and activities
• never is the opportunity greater for events out of your control, to control your destiny, prepare by having a plan yourself, and integrating it with your landlord

For more information contact ross.mclean@rossmcleansecurity.com

Life, Death, Nuclear Power & Business Continuity

How are these 4 connected?

Recently there has been an international shortage of nuclear isotopes used for many tests that are used in diagnosing and operating on many diseases, cancer amongst the leading disease.

The international health care industry has relied on a single source for the vast majority of these isotopes. A Canadian nuclear facility.

There was recently a world wide shortage due to the shut down of the facility, and it seems no-one was prepared or understood the linkages and the effects of the interruption of the business.

It's a complicated story, but simply put the players are the ownership group of the facility, the regulatory body to ensure nuclear safety (not a small responsibility!), the government and the health care industry.

The regulator said upgrades were necessary years ago to ensure safe operation, the facility said it was "working" on implementing the upgrades - they apparently never did.

The regulator shut them down for non-compliance, the flow of the isotopes stopped and everyone had a Public Relations nightmare on their hands.

The government was embarrassed, it stepped in and over ruled the regulator, and allowed the facility to restart without the safety upgrades, saying it knew it would be safe. (Interesting to know how they would know and guarantee that, or were they just taking a flyer that nothing would go wrong!).

The reactor fired up and started producing the isotopes.

No one saw the linkage of all these events prior to them happening, or at least no one acted on the knowledge, there was no plan.

What you get is a knee jerk reaction, and potentially compromised nuclear safety with a weakened regulator.

A proper review would have revealed all of these problems in advance and the whole mess could have been averted.

Wild Fires - What Now?

Questions Yet to Be Asked

For those who survived the first round, having insurance, getting the family out......will come the following questions.

How fast will we get paid?
An important question, where are all the people going to be housed during reconstruction, and don't just consider the burned to the ground houses......for those of you who know.....smoke damage means the house might as well have burnt to the ground, you can't live in them.

What do you mean we did not have enough insurance?
One of the most alarming things to discover on a claim, is you do not have the coverage you think you have. Insurance professionals tell me, many people under insure or do not adjust coverage to meet increased value. How much has your home gone up in value? What about the replacement cost of all your furniture, or do you have the garage sell price for coverage?

How do we "prove" our claim?
You may be surprised at what it takes to prove your claim, and if you can't how long it will take to settle. You could have $2,000 in bedding gone......no proof, no coverage, no payment, and that is one article.

Who is going to loan you money to get by?
The bank who still expects it's mortgage payment? The credit card company that still expects their payment? What will be the demand on local rental housing, any price increases there?

Can you get insurance to rebuild?
Many times insurers will not re-insure after a huge loss, and if they do the rates will be impossible to swallow. What will it cost to rebuild.....think the trades will be in high demand?

These are just a few of the tough questions.....but if you lived in a potential fire danger area, questions you should have thought about before.

WHAT QUESTIONS SHOULD YOU BE ASKING NOW WITH YOUR RISKS, WHAT IF YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT RISKS YOU FACE?

Our course on Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery will help your business answer these questions.

The Age of Turbulence

I have just started Alan Greenspan's new book, The Age of Turbulence, adventures in a new world.

The introduction itself is revealing, he starts on September 11, 2001 and describes the impact on the world and US economy and what steps were taken to protect the financial markets. He then goes on to describe in broad terms the fact that economies are now global, that countries with low standards of living have higher savings rate then developed countries, and therefore have more capital to deploy, whereas developed countries now have extraordinarily low savings rates, and less capital to deploy. When capital is deployed in lower developed countries by the way of credit it sparks demand, which has an exponential effect on those economies.

For example in an undeveloped country I can now borrow money for a house, that means I will need a fridge, a stove, etc, which will spark more economic activity for all. So some of the biggest payoffs for capital will come in less developed countries. So where do you think capital will flow?

What he is saying in a broad sense is this will create and sweeping changes in the world and its value chains, the changes will be rapid, hence his title "The age of Turbulence". We all remember the impact of his statement on "irrational exuberance" in the US market.

Turbulence means rapid change, your business will need to know how to deal with rapid change and identify what can threaten you business early on. This should be an excellent read.

Food Recall becomes Bankruptcy for Topps Meats

BANKRUPT

Tying together my earlier and recent posts on management priorities and product recalls comes an unfortunate real life example.

In one week Topps has gone from the largest US producer of frozen hamburgers to bankruptcy under the weight of the recall of beef for E coli for what inspectors called inadequate protections at their plant.

The C.E.O. called the event "tragic."

I agree.

Management Decisions - Mixed Priorities

One of the benefits of doing Business Continuity Planning is that it causes managers, who make decisions typically in silo's to rethink their priorities when making decisions.

A decision made in a silo can be disastrous for the business.

A story in a Toronto newspaper today describes a food warehouse that was shut down due to a mouse infestation, they were running rampant in the building, eating food, droppings everywhere, running over the inspectors feet almost.

Now the warehouse is shutdown, there is a food shortage at some of the stores it services where signs had to be posted, and the story has hit the papers, and I am sure the evening news.

In the story, management claims this is the first they have heard of the problem, and it is an isolated incident.

Are you telling me that no-one who worked there saw it? When they did see it that it was not brought to managements attention? That management did not correct the problem?

My guess is, local management had a choice to make, keep costs down to meet siloed goals for operations, rodent control was less important then other considerations.

Now the company has a public relations nightmare on its hands. Yet I am sure, in the silo the decision seemed right, yet at the top level they know that trust and confidence in the food supply chain is crucial to their business.

When managers lose sight of, or have no idea of the corporate goals......decisions like this get made. A manager who had a role in the business continuity program would realize the right decison to make, long before this became a problem.